Although electric cars will not replace gasoline vehicles in the near future, the process of internal combustion engines becoming obsolete has already begun. Many things need to change to realize future predictions for electric cars.
Introduction
Battery production and electric vehicle charging infrastructure will need to expand considerably. Automakers will need to convert to an all-electric platform. And – perhaps the most important factor – consumers will need to embrace electric vehicles and demand that these changes happen.
Electric Vehicle Growth Projections
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2021, sales of electric vehicles almost doubled compared to 2020, reaching 6.6 million (a sales share of almost 9%), bringing the number of electronic cars in circulation at 16.5 million. Hybrid electric vehicles, or HEVs, are not counted in this total because they can run on gasoline engines and electric power.
It may not seem like much, but the pace is picking up, as industry analysts, a digital car sales marketplace, predict there will be more models than ever, with more than 100 EV models likely to be available from now on. by the end of 2024. According to the protocol, the ratio of electric cars to gasoline cars will also gradually increase:
- By 2025, electric vehicle sales could represent up to 20% of new car sales
- By 2030, electric vehicle sales could reach 40% of new car sales
- By 2040, electric vehicle sales could account for almost all new car sales
The future of electric cars depends on many factors
Complex economic and societal issues influence how quickly and effectively the United States can adopt electric vehicles. Electric vehicles will need to become a priority for automakers, lawmakers and most consumers before they can be expected to replace gasoline-powered vehicles.
Fleet rotation
Fleet turnover refers to how quickly new vehicles replace existing vehicles. Since modern gasoline cars are more reliable and last longer than ever, it will take longer for future electric vehicles to replace them. Other factors impacting fleet turnover include urban transportation planning and ride-sharing services.
Automaker Conversions
Automakers are working to convert their offerings to fully electric vehicles, but their conversion timelines differ. Some have pledged to end gasoline car sales by 2035; others could take until 2045-2050 to achieve this, unless required by law.
Legislation
Many states have passed laws or asked their governors to sign executive orders banning the sale of new gasoline-powered passenger cars in their state by 2035. If this happens nationally, most passenger cars in circulation by 2050 could be electric.
Infrastructure
If more electric cars are on the roads, we will need infrastructure to charge them. Lawmakers have passed laws to begin the work of installing chargers across the country, which will take many years.
Consumer influence on the future of electric cars
The expected exponential growth in electric vehicle adoption presents a few additional hurdles for consumers to overcome. Some of these barriers include cost of ownership, driving habits, and driver anxiety about how far they can go on a charge.
Electric Vehicle Costs
Although the total cost of owning an electric car is lower than that of a gasoline car, the price of purchasing an electric vehicle in 2021 was about $10,000 higher than the average of all cars. Installing a home EV charger, replacing an electric car battery, and even insuring an EV can be expensive. Ultimately, electric vehicle adoption will increase when the cost of purchasing and maintaining electric vehicles is comparable to gasoline cars.
Driving habits
As more businesses and workers adopt remote work, future driving habits and car purchases could be affected. People who drive less may be less likely to replace an older vehicle and invest in an electric option.
Range anxiety
Range anxiety is the term coined for people who worry whether an electric vehicle will run out of battery and leave them stranded. This fear may ease as more charging stations become available. Additionally, these fears will diminish as batteries become more powerful and people often realize that they often don't drive enough for range to be an issue. If the industry can address these challenges quickly and decisively, the adoption rate of electric vehicles could increase faster than experts predict.
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